发布时间:2024-03-27 16:57
变更时间:星期三 27日 三月 2024 16:57:13

What is the future of work

Smell-o-vision, a television that allows you to smell things as well as see them; and a miracle pill which cures all diseases. These predictions for the future were made in the 1930s, but so far they haven't come true.
Making predictions for the future isn't easy. Just ask tech billionaire Elon Musk, who recently predicted that artificial intelligence will eventually mean that no one will have to work. In fact, there have been many predictions about the future of work.
For example, that robots will take over most jobs, and that everyone will work from home.
During Covid, one of these predictions came true. Millions were forced to work from home. So, what will work be like in the future? That's what we'll be discussing in this programme and, as usual, we'll be learning some useful new vocabulary too.

		   
气味电视（Smell-o-vision）是一种电视技术，可以让你不仅看到事物，还能闻到它们的气味；而奇迹药丸则是一种能治愈所有疾病的药丸。这些关于未来的预测是在上世纪30年代提出的，但到目前为止，它们还没有实现。
预测未来并不容易。可以问问科技亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克，他最近预测说人工智能最终将意味着没有人需要工作。事实上，对于未来工作的预测已经有很多。
例如，预测机器人会接管大部分工作，每个人都会在家工作。
在新冠疫情期间，其中一个预测成真了。数百万人被迫在家工作。那么，未来的工作会是什么样子？这就是我们将在这个节目中讨论的内容，和往常一样，我们还将学习一些有用的新词汇。
		
	

But first I have a question for you, Beth. Another idea for the future is the 'four-day working week' where employees work four days for the same money as five. After Covid, many British companies gave the idea a go, but out of the 60 companies taking part in a four-day working week trial in 2023, how many said they plan to continue with a shorter work week? Was it
a) 52%?, b) 72%? or c) 92%?
Hmm, I guess 52% of the company's plan to continue with a four day week.
OK, Beth. I'll reveal the answer later in the programme.

		   
但首先我有一个问题要问你，贝丝。未来的另一个想法是实行“四天工作制”，员工每周工作四天，但薪水仍与五天工作相同。新冠疫情之后，许多英国公司尝试了这个想法，但在2023年参与四天工作周试点的60家公司中，有多少表示他们计划继续实行较短的工作周呢？
是 a）52%？ b）72%？ 还是c）92%？ 
嗯，我猜有52%的公司计划继续实行四天工作周。 
好的，贝丝。我会在节目后面揭晓答案。
		
	

Now, whatever Elon Musk thinks, as we've seen, it's difficult to make your predictions accurate. Here Shaun Ley, presenter of BBC World Service programme, The Real Story, asking University of Cambridge professor, Brendan Burchell, what he thinks about predictions for the future of work

		   
现在，无论埃隆·马斯克怎么想，正如我们所见，要使你的预测准确并不容易。在这里，BBC World Service节目《真实故事》的主持人肖恩·莱（Shaun Ley）询问剑桥大学教授布兰登·伯切尔（Brendan Burchell）对未来工作预测的看法。
		
	

Brendan Burchell, when you look at all the predictions that have been made, certainly in your working lifetime, do you take some of the things that are being predicted now with a large pinch of salt?
I do. I think we have to be sceptical. I think the track record for economists and other social scientists isn't good when we look… you know, for hundreds of years, a hundred years now, people have been predicting that they'll be really quite dramatic reductions in working time, like Elon Musk has just made, and previously those predictions - although we're heading very gradually in that direction - those predictions of very, very large changes in working time just haven't come to pass.

		   
布兰登·伯切尔，当你审视所有已经做出的预测时，至少在你的工作生涯中，你是否对当前被预测的一些事情持怀疑态度？ 
我是的。我认为我们必须持怀疑态度。我认为经济学家和其他社会科学家的记录并不好，你知道，几百年来，已经有一百年了，人们一直在预测将会有非常戏剧性的工作时间减少，就像埃隆·马斯克刚刚做出的那样，以及之前的那些预测 - 尽管我们正在非常缓慢地朝着这个方向发展 - 那些对工作时间进行非常非常大的改变的预测就是没有实现。
		
	

Shaun asks if we should take predictions with a pinch of salt. To take something with a pinch of salt is an idiom meaning to doubt that what you've been told is accurate or likely to come true.
For example, if your friend always lies, you take what they say with a pinch of salt.

		   
肖恩问我们是否应该对预测持保留态度。‘To take some thing with a pinch of salt’是一个成语，意思是怀疑你所听到的是否准确或可能成真。例如，如果你的朋友总是撒谎，你会对他们说的话持保留态度。
		
	

Professor Burchell thinks predictions for the future of work have a bad track record. A track record means all the achievements or failures that someone has had in the past. When it comes to predicting the future of work, most predictions simply haven't come to pass, an old-fashioned way of saying saying ‘happened’ or ‘come true’.

		   
伯切尔教授认为对未来工作的预测记录不佳。“记录”指的是一个人过去的所有成就或失败。当涉及到预测未来工作时，大多数预测简单地未能实现，这是一种古老的说法，意思是“发生”或“成真”。
		
	

So, are predictions for a future of leisure, relaxing by the pool while robots do all the work just a dream? Let's hear from Andrew Palmer, business editor for The Economist magazine, talking to BBC World Service programme, The Real Story

		   
那么，对于未来休闲、在泳池边放松，而机器人完成所有工作的预测只是一个梦想吗？让我们听听《经济学人》杂志的商业编辑安德鲁·帕尔默（Andrew Palmer）在BBC World Service节目《真实故事》中的看法。
		
	

I'm not a tech dystopian, I don't think that machines or AI are going to get rid of all jobs, but I do worry about a sequencing risk. So, there will be some disruption from AI. Some jobs, some professions are at risk. And, although economists like to say new jobs will crop up, they won't necessarily be aligned at the same time – there won't be coordination.

		   
我不是一个科技厌恶者，我不认为机器或人工智能会消灭所有的工作，但我确实担心序列风险。因此，人工智能会带来一些干扰。一些工作、一些职业处于风险之中。虽然经济学家们喜欢说新的工作会涌现，但它们不一定会同时出现 - 不会有协调。
		
	

Andrew is not a dystopian, someone who imagines a nightmarish future of suffering and injustice. He doesn't think AI will get rid of all jobs. To get rid of something means to remove it because you no longer want it.
Andrew predicts that AI Will replace some jobs, and those workers will need support, but he also thinks new jobs will crop up, they will appear unexpectedly. And that's exactly the problem – the future is hard to predict because it's so unexpected! Anyway, I reckon a shorter working week is something we can all agree on, right Neil?

		   
安德鲁并不是一个反乌托邦者，也不是一个想象受苦受难、不公正的梦魇未来的人。他不认为人工智能会消灭所有的工作。消灭某物意味着因为你不再需要它而将其移除。
安德鲁预测人工智能将取代一些工作，而那些工人将需要支持，但他也认为新的工作将会涌现，它们会出现得出乎意料。而这正是问题所在 - 未来很难预测，因为它是如此出人意料！不管怎样，我认为缩短工作周是我们都可以同意的事情，对吗，尼尔？
		
	

Absolutely. I think it's time to reveal the answer to my question about the 60 companies trying out a shorter working week in 2023.
I asked how many of them planned to continue a four-day week at the end of the trials.
And I guessed 52%. So, was I right?
That was...the wrong answer, I'm afraid, Beth! Actually, a whopping 92% of the companies plan on keeping a four-day week because it was so popular, with bosses as well as workers!

		   
绝对正确。我认为现在是时候揭示关于2023年试行缩短工作周的60家公司的问题的答案了。
我问了其中有多少计划在试验结束时继续实行四天工作周。
我猜是52%。那么，我猜对了吗？
抱歉，贝丝，你的答案是错误的！事实上，惊人的92%的公司计划保持四天工作周，因为这个方案非常受欢迎，老板和员工都喜欢！
		
	

Right, let's recap the vocabulary we've learned from this programme,
starting with the idiom take it with a pinch of salt, meaning don't completely believe what you're told is true.
A track record means the achievements or failures of someone's past performance.
Come to pass is an old-fashioned way of saying take place or happen.
A dystopian is someone who foresees a nightmarish future where there's great suffering and injustice in society.
If you get rid of something, you remove something that you no longer want.
And finally if something crops up, it appears or happens unexpectedly.

		   
好的，让我们回顾一下我们从这个节目中学到的词汇，
首先是习语"take it with a pinch of salt"，意思是不完全相信所听到的是真的。 
"Track record" 意味着某人过去表现的成就或失败。 
"Come to pass" 是一种说法过时的表达方式，意思是发生或发生。 
"反乌托邦主义者" 是指预见到社会将会有巨大的痛苦和不公正的噩梦般未来的人。 
如果你"get rid of something"，你是移除你不再想要的东西。 
最后，如果某事"crop up"，它会突然出现或发生。